Scenario analysis via function overloading
In this tutorial we will illustrate how to perform a scenario analysis by running the model multiple times under a specific shock and comparing the results with the unshocked model.
import BeforeIT as Bit
using Plots, StatsPlots
parameters = Bit.AUSTRIA2010Q1.parameters
initial_conditions = Bit.AUSTRIA2010Q1.initial_conditionsDict{String, Any} with 21 entries:
"sb_inact" => 2.23847
"C_G" => [11482.3; 11556.2; … ; 14578.2; 14714.8;;]
"E_CB" => 1.0618e5
"D_RoW" => 0.0
"sb_other" => 0.590286
"L_I" => 236919.0
"omega" => 0.85
"r_bar" => 0.00164593
"N_s" => [123.0; 18.0; … ; 5.0; 60.0;;]
"C_E" => [17384.5; 17752.9; … ; 38786.7; 38617.8;;]
"D_H" => 219841.0
"K_H" => 4.05377e5
"L_G" => 2.32611e5
"pi" => [-0.00749736; -0.00789543; … ; 0.00530319; 0.00100796;;]
"w_UB" => 4.06546
"Y" => [1.04531e5; 1.05062e5; … ; 1.35709e5; 1.34636e5;;]
"Y_I" => [19804.6; 19944.1; … ; 36883.2; 36575.9;;]
"Y_EA" => 2.35485e6
"D_I" => 54049.0
⋮ => ⋮Initialise the model and the data collector
T = 20
model = Bit.init_model(parameters, initial_conditions, T);
data = Bit.init_data(model);Simulate the model for T quarters
data_vec_baseline = Bit.ensemblerun(model, 4)BeforeIT.DataVector(BeforeIT.Data[BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.0, 72470.3001250894, 72746.25123635326, 73080.77902122147, 73654.56674465675, 74367.44601843781, 74879.54128679796, 75284.71520524375, 76024.51469640991, 76664.89824035026 … 77507.6060886566, 77851.36003444636, 77935.26138823139, 77761.2601259757, 78369.37793930309, 78395.22737839939, 78405.11580975066, 78688.30914238012, 78993.96065975128, 78867.40548601138], [72422.0, 72397.28983757908, 72599.74848117842, 72860.12552268404, 73358.20146802087, 73993.59220996086, 74428.05486848806, 74755.3974280623, 75413.94299491169, 75972.56762239202 … 76652.9833211439, 76915.38029666171, 76920.70093480225, 76671.64398604339, 77193.39365363526, 77141.06098001561, 77073.0655626361, 77273.51982558685, 77495.52414228271, 77293.42171815403], [64900.92049553801, 64966.370940930254, 65233.714801294336, 65553.63325964153, 66111.40355757861, 66767.95839466019, 67245.00702582242, 67623.45230464965, 68313.98150241056, 68882.69748479423 … 69672.82000094304, 69978.73753180778, 70038.4713149197, 69948.61070833125, 70481.89131944004, 70466.30120417888, 70496.68382850083, 70763.27167721959, 71030.22256329648, 70899.91869878172], [64900.92049553801, 64900.920495538, 65102.34144821762, 65355.70654465153, 65845.3898496703, 66432.30809514761, 66839.55305468991, 67147.99994540714, 67765.33500215196, 68260.64486865734 … 68904.58600102422, 69137.40758745559, 69126.71119570006, 68968.46796025634, 69424.26398086394, 69338.98172129637, 69298.99252807126, 69490.97186697561, 69682.85020161426, 69484.94478799318], [40512.94792630534, 40343.176919281956, 40377.30796437989, 40455.43529887678, 40446.25673752128, 40711.28937380646, 40871.36313244492, 40977.14654824399, 41119.83356355162, 41537.67823229206 … 41779.39334713298, 41997.07746319392, 42186.55605267624, 41838.656856651985, 42108.17008716498, 42348.96711007872, 42294.22555277289, 42432.484143092806, 42596.97393730176, 42572.6927556393], [40512.94792630534, 40302.533139128216, 40295.992614615636, 40333.2878142289, 40283.512367461255, 40506.62898279837, 40624.92912610617, 40689.04115969298, 40789.58999876882, 41162.567756713535 … 41318.720871627964, 41492.161254481245, 41637.371887831956, 41252.39995044645, 41476.309178952986, 41671.468576917316, 41575.67507277879, 41669.56235833289, 41788.95189677843, 41723.05497513393], [14866.888022051655, 14809.90943593952, 14716.887958410754, 14892.97792589506, 15032.339247438205, 15351.004260312455, 15548.078351727612, 15659.548950889404, 16036.09526501224, 16206.788019505717 … 16422.392693967187, 16417.031988329192, 16184.221008851518, 16304.600533869683, 16323.422223482055, 16273.486835819805, 16108.720220833131, 16127.714868427374, 16347.936845102751, 16479.531698997584], [14866.888022051655, 14794.989175583829, 14687.249803909841, 14848.011414494917, 14971.853339008432, 15273.832974838411, 15454.331166769074, 15549.448545783898, 15907.305413338107, 16060.430875334107 … 16241.314327577626, 16219.65574096705, 15973.53498159432, 16076.135153189467, 16078.478489999765, 16013.143686669768, 15835.043885695422, 15837.74398267798, 16037.832815004984, 16150.644052240747], [15944.236265986641, 16041.675113200012, 16038.371153569975, 15875.95166824005, 16132.439959536114, 16294.85737347352, 16430.48170792678, 16406.6030314156, 16620.416949347466, 16783.969192689 … 17023.745286455192, 17226.760230866123, 17358.90109633304, 18099.81839929218, 17457.552390527853, 17430.025548624486, 18225.154497150594, 18465.226840510408, 17940.780012043982, 17064.473337535772], [15944.236265986641, 16025.513909090978, 16006.071680778181, 15828.01725477149, 16067.527555014132, 16212.941228522783, 16331.414069290928, 16291.250178927377, 16486.93426554608, 16632.399751788707 … 16836.036220928116, 17019.64890337448, 17132.923095443373, 17846.197840343375, 17195.590284698897, 17151.180099774127, 17915.5213654231, 18133.22827616398, 17600.46133834547, 16723.911810567846], [15944.236265986641, 15943.540393781193, 15977.314163300152, 16035.341806534283, 16132.707856253328, 16263.55715181466, 16378.109388254747, 16483.02550314188, 16613.289785358058, 16749.098935792706 … 16946.504436788004, 17024.243476919106, 17090.972642913668, 18143.950323548997, 17169.98200501877, 17222.719030758755, 18538.005876175615, 18588.490370516905, 17325.355534604758, 17339.769127663112], [15944.236265986641, 15927.478055608512, 15945.137652408734, 15986.926144889145, 16067.794373790242, 16181.798356721956, 16279.35752867711, 16367.135333447224, 16479.864341575383, 16597.844394501742 … 16759.64705268987, 16819.56693769799, 16868.482531951428, 17889.711373683193, 16912.335082789254, 16947.190070393317, 18223.05760968381, 18254.275569383793, 16996.710848424245, 16993.71342851658], [3173.2320350842083, 3159.6570248228027, 3154.5852216124954, 3149.72915927931, 3137.211589301899, 3143.136813129596, 3156.6321262971014, 3166.529603176966, 3170.682781993743, 3202.295898638117 … 3228.2191472136087, 3235.993797842712, 3278.866926982654, 2906.0042784607954, 3295.152587424633, 3317.3539647850253, 3212.9358574543808, 3205.2190702677776, 3340.1382403813036, 3349.0025169468727], [3173.2320350842083, 3156.473824706087, 3148.2322423380288, 3140.2191517540964, 3124.5883315512683, 3127.3358984678025, 3137.5992034435094, 3144.266114414822, 3145.218243497915, 3173.377220738892 … 3192.6238073372406, 3197.0885735147444, 3236.1826701146133, 2865.284398672405, 3245.706646119718, 3264.2829550653064, 3158.350235601972, 3147.5903100615865, 3276.7791548134983, 3282.165329040107], [34195.564496956766, 35997.919416067445, 36644.849567287056, 36291.05851916763, 36353.64837950781, 35644.809730852685, 34567.292361939915, 35135.51347739926, 36770.15824797828, 36212.65875021221 … 34181.197977347874, 33838.67610706623, 33631.580617701045, 32800.12983157711, 32455.911623910055, 34286.207324481424, 33098.07817588594, 33211.13634648641, 32959.23113596715, 32842.196193542644], [34195.564496956766, 35961.65327060083, 36571.05096827567, 36181.48457735793, 36207.37151529017, 35465.619122814154, 34358.86876918058, 34888.47990832369, 36474.84800265169, 35885.63643640377 … 33804.30554721801, 33431.84551122749, 33193.7650375228, 32340.5237141034, 31968.889230082914, 33737.69677616925, 32535.764062095408, 32614.01129177782, 32334.027448123903, 32186.753258772987], [33097.63671130043, 34722.380759398904, 35031.16540729444, 34434.64439095769, 34310.117579346304, 33634.5147200071, 32537.67426724118, 32894.096802704495, 34521.989329479606, 34076.19595434841 … 31899.12321624637, 31628.18575500912, 31425.99738733021, 31281.945495415224, 29975.678385781757, 31943.459440604867, 31321.062636891937, 31548.253056136884, 30850.961270664393, 30091.48849970398], [33097.63671130043, 34687.39965682428, 34960.61658640087, 34330.67553816879, 34172.06330875281, 33465.430099012716, 32341.48826285867, 32662.82236466574, 34244.73468539303, 33768.46719784789 … 31547.393646207594, 31247.93111338851, 31016.894067589943, 30843.6126720393, 29525.873530099267, 31432.428159514693, 30788.938823356646, 30981.026083365767, 30265.749355970165, 29490.942378561474], [29576.147776884874, 29605.97434991661, 29729.192014257525, 29893.755973157713, 30118.117804941332, 30381.24776001597, 30582.76286844457, 30773.3654173773, 31033.581982105443, 31282.954609247834 … 31631.98312959171, 31767.435180810877, 31831.31179085017, 31834.60002055474, 32020.774273031904, 32046.1701064416, 32083.565475433556, 32200.852644469738, 32313.67374776661, 32262.63094753929], [34346.71094688275, 34381.34847608993, 34515.04722097475, 34665.59403335142, 34994.291640733725, 35379.13618770702, 35648.542808632475, 35836.78761387134, 36254.03758869409, 36562.32307123978 … 36996.40332847039, 37168.768562403384, 37166.61195903388, 37076.744202757945, 37414.67708386695, 37376.484509184855, 37368.7104000701, 37514.04014923688, 37660.6047882823, 37586.02838634187], 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[0.0016459319014481277, 0.0016477170656485143, 0.0009130458963810005, 0.0005379113334162321, 0.002409932929429501, 0.0031864889565893983, 0.004115279709382389, 0.004092273304168035, 0.00443879464458766, 0.0037490719723000418 … 0.0037065741555815036, 0.0029033745457590545, 0.0038279962657833985, 0.004500092780586129, 0.003973282656383644, 0.0031884793718491805, 0.0023829331315187554, 0.002092035399562113, 0.0016221401447371153, 0.002998873554371181], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.9046295086172; 518.6059091613051 258.5036962251161 … 137.13538556670355 505.4138092341077; … ; 569.9813024279866 288.9836141723872 … 146.83093024070783 534.6023625932912; 574.8288938600006 290.2209537765221 … 147.2495610821323 535.7844457343166], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.9046295086172; 518.0834390395163 258.24326637797435 … 136.9972283642248 504.90462950861695; … ; 559.1693265414835 283.5018837108498 … 144.0456941805198 524.4614898513181; 563.3568371509506 284.42891500560825 … 144.31085126228757 525.0916124217521]), BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.0, 72495.0934327661, 72501.28734126521, 72930.04564973302, 73024.68684449687, 73234.06783472263, 73561.2601054505, 73758.86193111318, 73921.76863744827, 74211.16312047704 … 74741.21839252875, 74763.83259330635, 74978.48661486505, 74977.82800404096, 74996.89441046638, 75243.81669977764, 75542.6953081421, 76243.34494213988, 76870.48908075182, 77515.30409160505], [72422.0, 72422.05816720934, 72355.2779157801, 72709.84726191299, 72730.85602755725, 72865.91165031529, 73117.72226746952, 73240.2722447689, 73328.08461019817, 73540.9912217092 … 73917.09866888776, 73864.97312064645, 74002.41742586927, 73927.21422286115, 73871.51646796321, 74040.06655137271, 74259.2756624515, 74872.51525884448, 75412.33269775454, 75968.30467341928], [64900.92049553801, 64966.37094093027, 64972.65224128761, 65372.45999352788, 65448.57073958361, 65637.43218142184, 65930.67799179054, 66104.97452789062, 66253.0912561128, 66528.61571610223 … 67002.25758672842, 67009.15221900793, 67204.75308470629, 67190.38705130873, 67196.49354972002, 67421.70112918437, 67719.55223007612, 68381.19497181136, 68956.54284645063, 69541.69440587754], [64900.92049553801, 64900.920495538, 64841.804638798254, 65175.08029672171, 65185.22408465179, 65307.46516879127, 65533.148771502856, 65640.1984032504, 65720.99627570712, 65927.82188883836 … 66263.47003157107, 66203.52456272379, 66329.88228107171, 66248.89343275386, 66188.16577496543, 66343.08914085593, 66569.0425299002, 67151.72409907213, 67648.50611735748, 68153.82704153859], [40512.94792630534, 40552.82130627473, 40546.08936577118, 40619.26499675511, 40741.53328626746, 40830.461110296965, 40938.140180163144, 41037.81694251574, 41108.01937475617, 41130.179893201755 … 41451.894684930325, 41561.80199389469, 41647.48470766324, 41748.985507668964, 41802.99456456919, 41850.28831911267, 41708.8827447346, 41868.400431422655, 42113.589247341624, 42400.26709396435], [40512.94792630534, 40511.96631964133, 40464.43410927763, 40496.622859525756, 40577.60080636011, 40625.20162909649, 40691.303541415466, 40749.28498772028, 40777.87069264903, 40758.74937524936 … 40994.83331067319, 41062.11895027325, 41105.318168198006, 41163.98510565323, 41175.71301666849, 41180.76764639179, 41000.27684583138, 41115.62068196326, 41314.736531477785, 41554.07047132366], [14866.888022051655, 14849.755383039457, 14949.811922323586, 15185.51847922421, 15316.774592437385, 15461.542194208605, 15839.319667264963, 15928.356707831028, 15981.793799172921, 16149.200580777288 … 16114.562728439556, 16306.297269511384, 16209.210153067961, 16371.468323493606, 16478.372464641525, 16766.534891294712, 17017.08315583806, 17252.137193467275, 17437.73054395183, 17676.443237158197], [14866.888022051655, 14834.794979838365, 14919.70468519805, 15139.668697319565, 15255.144196117306, 15383.815221672847, 15743.81644192274, 15816.366347719337, 15853.440056016292, 16003.363486171565 … 15936.878590182512, 16110.252347036127, 15998.198817381315, 16142.065969535266, 16231.103600432803, 16498.30396217849, 16727.974344649017, 16941.949572724297, 17106.95421610851, 17323.668417734658], [15944.236265986641, 16126.335182243773, 15814.87389714446, 16093.336609659344, 16084.667378462473, 16274.134076985323, 16274.044998698571, 15998.774896043482, 16107.165270503709, 16374.083510437893 … 16434.11379283076, 16324.76451516501, 16485.78171154031, 16802.00381314276, 16488.689627032032, 16433.988540856295, 16050.708436768286, 16428.735451341236, 16533.980932784507, 16947.045561118728], [15944.236265986641, 16110.088687250463, 15783.024522650296, 16044.745843747705, 16019.947197380696, 16192.322110458528, 16175.920595669288, 15886.289434120545, 15977.804638018351, 16226.215586323045 … 16252.90618599052, 16128.497567438848, 16271.169970071078, 16566.568655477597, 16241.265946986268, 16171.077686348834, 15778.01768287113, 16133.352316815906, 16220.347832204512, 16608.827580421203], [15944.236265986641, 15959.696300796157, 15956.777335927036, 16017.49315810779, 16051.231313404709, 16082.319478201138, 16129.59382235337, 16169.132272988056, 16209.731032907104, 16253.723903789329 … 16346.640445397004, 16388.683656034656, 16430.061635078964, 16446.225943276153, 16441.868354418017, 16471.07652952607, 16498.571399560464, 16575.304036732203, 16707.283855204172, 16829.589042756692], [15944.236265986641, 15943.617686336307, 15924.642183892489, 15969.131387058413, 15986.645669651825, 16001.471785992155, 16032.340388124216, 16055.449048838816, 16079.546669388197, 16106.942900061264 … 16166.39734666171, 16191.648230780498, 16216.175257007926, 16215.77606116606, 16195.14725849729, 16207.57234158839, 16218.27175478802, 16277.285648367404, 16390.363371318304, 16493.715181942298], [3173.2320350842083, 3175.8129318377687, 3175.8956706029235, 3170.268320302439, 3183.1048857408186, 3185.1450399928094, 3187.0734319147937, 3195.5361130227966, 3206.046323058668, 3209.022563426877 … 3222.8938104476288, 3246.5533440366075, 3254.4771612125633, 3269.9001983392563, 3275.0073571931116, 3276.244759331431, 3253.7010011407733, 3222.956799897567, 3239.9483728604982, 3252.45539509136], [3173.2320350842083, 3172.613455433882, 3169.499774484797, 3160.696298690931, 3170.296966263212, 3169.132945084277, 3167.856963117879, 3173.068682978908, 3180.297771208411, 3180.0431396570443 … 3187.357189376757, 3207.5211659692136, 3212.1104100714433, 3224.0812902312155, 3225.8637083754884, 3223.8314144450082, 3198.4228068821003, 3165.009121282062, 3178.4897889882695, 3187.545031094915], [34195.564496956766, 34410.19207394154, 34493.748387588246, 34498.631785254816, 34695.11998018258, 34233.67952726984, 34526.77073729259, 34981.35642398701, 35558.85608589159, 35802.73336225539 … 35639.447824938026, 35699.80056772709, 35732.90900426023, 35486.96941499432, 35241.31465385912, 35926.3225140366, 38297.6543095382, 38448.281089433636, 38554.98235639506, 38763.66888392279], [34195.564496956766, 34375.525486218416, 34424.281864032695, 34394.46973471131, 34555.516568129555, 34061.582835038775, 34318.59146979048, 34735.4067146117, 35273.27410815215, 35479.412923799144 … 35246.47628227526, 35270.594321881916, 35267.73835215839, 34989.71442492329, 34712.49544757036, 35351.57341232013, 37647.002890175485, 37756.993934743914, 37823.63285814651, 37990.04909473505], [33097.63671130043, 33444.010512733104, 33303.236231562005, 33466.70622116038, 33813.408392852805, 33565.74907403822, 34017.01547796861, 34187.44303926412, 34834.06589287613, 35245.03422619515 … 34898.800638609595, 35128.83175299165, 35096.89896166692, 35431.59905525873, 35014.47689963541, 35733.317565522535, 37531.63333873686, 37754.20922352501, 37769.79399972116, 38272.120684558875], [33097.63671130043, 33410.31730573904, 33236.16726537831, 33365.659873391174, 33677.352740430215, 33397.01014595138, 33811.90978132834, 33947.07523940298, 34554.30488463772, 34926.75014983376 … 34513.99570023347, 34706.490065983504, 34640.007881939695, 34935.119932728194, 34489.06154369458, 35161.65615586644, 36893.99610107531, 37075.40124740293, 37053.33874018284, 37508.3108907951], [29576.147776884874, 29605.974349916603, 29607.86313817308, 29722.694152632444, 29781.166013708746, 29834.94412292219, 29903.649529315633, 29973.334452628027, 30048.028568035345, 30141.2057743373 … 30326.10298437848, 30370.287746648384, 30439.40532795694, 30452.56825842779, 30404.55673743495, 30453.35880841309, 30558.425191179565, 30807.699181161366, 31066.618101656306, 31300.261703623524], [34346.71094688275, 34381.34847608994, 34383.86204990578, 34661.69210341722, 34677.996633482435, 34806.97198317002, 35024.517047816706, 35128.595977938676, 35198.90242965375, 35368.02051735572 … 35642.07334761772, 35609.86304868942, 35739.60399888866, 35711.23738558667, 35753.01470883248, 35921.592859507036, 36122.10197206359, 36506.57650277614, 36813.52601678004, 37155.63260952071], [28335.32931213966, 28363.904560528437, 28365.978207170534, 28595.182280632787, 28608.6331822167, 28715.035190030423, 28894.505388982736, 28980.368363286798, 29038.36973830042, 29177.888678413365 … 29403.976620470083, 29377.403787083287, 29484.437399554972, 29461.03552766612, 29495.500959124187, 29634.574462307137, 29799.99035156539, 30117.17392284586, 30370.40095162753, 30652.63184646204], [978.061771770434, 979.0481149238881, 980.9270532087615, 988.073737478224, 989.4080923924478, 995.5160753296116, 1002.5114146582785, 1003.0440973238897, 1006.1602584237569, 1019.3894244091874 … 1034.0812547322575, 1029.0014236701313, 1025.7437578606412, 1026.5814072942599, 1038.9221034525463, 1046.7494612642456, 1039.025066832978, 1066.919287873829, 1076.3987280143683, 1085.8000927332023], [0.0019383188997990075, 0.0034633506059016383, 0.005598352698906739, 0.0006225011946081604, 0.0034284733921525756, 0.00424058234700575, 0.0027769535504562626, 0.0032020041555353984, -0.0013409751770999678, 0.0014787088595500375 … 0.0022741289989296476, 0.001533678506970615, 0.003133307650571071, -0.0009252416555750598, 0.0012965765920940342, 0.00801882295841394, 0.007077127040001185, 0.0046616612765635335, 0.00409651886663176, 0.0009462583459727281], [2.3548476e6, 2.3609193800396114e6, 2.353109226720007e6, 2.352490302136347e6, 2.3751859924151297e6, 2.3622637297087535e6, 2.385664180269995e6, 2.383589335185976e6, 2.3892212825519084e6, 2.391833876988108e6 … 2.3655585857613166e6, 2.3600504300908116e6, 2.3797256358432565e6, 2.37201704188347e6, 2.3608906237083897e6, 2.365031884878254e6, 2.394154125448522e6, 2.4099986223750357e6, 2.4130602034928324e6, 2.4310417628926444e6], [0.0016459319014481277, 0.001857168423137669, 0.0015227632987900974, 0.0013984424889687869, 0.0023225171795107774, 0.0017127571671481483, 0.002624029842337874, 0.0024176993835533307, 0.0024403416923662142, 0.0024011647856761373 … 0.0011134146040339319, 0.0008371508176576803, 0.0016670815781136418, 0.0012038146273035649, 0.0006830695191131415, 0.0009890500596758643, 0.002289406158072885, 0.0028778355566230355, 0.00288374054114603, 0.003424918062152449], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.9046295086172; 518.6059091613051 258.5036962251161 … 137.13538556670355 505.4138092341077; … ; 507.05342570173104 260.48981114786176 … 142.76946467137773 530.3127522483616; 511.65907027180504 263.50206719700714 … 143.81513378726856 533.4656436726193], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.9046295086172; 518.0834390395163 258.24326637797435 … 136.9972283642248 504.90462950861695; … ; 497.4351287707607 255.54857966392984 … 140.06127055557087 520.253249129245; 501.4477153233109 258.24326637797446 … 140.9449660068225 522.8190874853619])])Now, apply a shock to the model and simulate it again Here, we do this by overloading the centralbankrate function with the wanted behaviour
function Bit.central_bank_rate(cb::Bit.CentralBank, model::Bit.Model)
gamma_EA = model.rotw.gamma_EA
pi_EA = model.rotw.pi_EA
taylor_rate = Bit.taylor_rule(cb.rho, cb.r_bar, cb.r_star, cb.pi_star, cb.xi_pi, cb.xi_gamma, gamma_EA, pi_EA)
if model.agg.t < 10
return 0.01
else
return taylor_rate
end
end
data_vec_shocked = Bit.ensemblerun(model, 4)BeforeIT.DataVector(BeforeIT.Data[BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.0, 72493.81045047568, 72397.55266705957, 72255.14452456943, 72304.66085813176, 72769.59410018873, 73023.04484044774, 73019.970285278, 73246.71140975447, 73399.97611494441 … 73408.638055954, 73648.26794179497, 73747.00359479764, 73766.45845371032, 73813.3097210167, 73800.2337940396, 73987.33013874403, 74111.58743029385, 74309.9271462071, 74552.23444004676], [72422.0, 72420.77647746094, 72251.75215152267, 72036.98387220353, 72013.7272234045, 72403.77287931554, 72582.75217301813, 72506.57565721986, 72658.44893424668, 72737.12972776915 … 72599.2117740616, 72762.82051369664, 72786.96583944224, 72732.81877777634, 72705.69224863734, 72619.57807668793, 72730.33510242737, 72779.08602964386, 72900.34206506445, 73064.37001566202], [64900.92049553801, 64966.370940930254, 64881.58687267774, 64743.57452641266, 64779.86219713873, 65215.734147943294, 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140.97713589979915 522.731460068727])])Finally, we can plot baseline and shocked simulations
Te = T + 1
StatsPlots.errorline(
1:Te,
data_vec_baseline.real_gdp,
errortype = :sem,
label = "baseline",
titlefont = 10,
xlabel = "quarters",
ylabel = "GDP",
)
StatsPlots.errorline!(
1:Te,
data_vec_shocked.real_gdp,
errortype = :sem,
label = "shock",
titlefont = 10,
xlabel = "quarters",
ylabel = "GDP",
)
Note that, importantly, once the function central_bank_rate has been changed, the model will use the new interest rate in all the simulations, unless the function is changed again. To restore the original interest rate, you could close and restart the Julia session.