Essential use of BeforeIT
We start by importing the BeforeIT library and other useful libraries.
import BeforeIT as Bit
using Plots
We then initialise the model loading some precomputed set of parameters and by specifying a number of epochs. In another tutorial we will illustrate how to compute parameters and initial conditions.
parameters = Bit.AUSTRIA2010Q1.parameters
initial_conditions = Bit.AUSTRIA2010Q1.initial_conditions
Dict{String, Any} with 21 entries:
"sb_inact" => 2.23847
"C_G" => [11482.3; 11556.2; … ; 14578.2; 14714.8;;]
"E_CB" => 1.0618e5
"D_RoW" => 0.0
"sb_other" => 0.590286
"L_I" => 236919.0
"omega" => 0.85
"r_bar" => 0.00164593
"N_s" => [123.0; 18.0; … ; 5.0; 60.0;;]
"C_E" => [17384.5; 17752.9; … ; 38786.7; 38617.8;;]
"D_H" => 219841.0
"K_H" => 4.05377e5
"L_G" => 2.32611e5
"pi" => [-0.00749736; -0.00789543; … ; 0.00530319; 0.00100796;;]
"w_UB" => 4.06546
"Y" => [1.04531e5; 1.05062e5; … ; 1.35709e5; 1.34636e5;;]
"Y_I" => [19804.6; 19944.1; … ; 36883.2; 36575.9;;]
"Y_EA" => 2.35485e6
"D_I" => 54049.0
⋮ => ⋮
We can now initialise the model, by specifying in advance the maximum number of epochs.
T = 16
model = Bit.init_model(parameters, initial_conditions, T)
Model(Workers{Vector{Float64}, Vector{Int64}}([0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249 … 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569], [3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487, 3.781806633594487 … 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958, 22.981960001210958], [6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 6.973481059156249, 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0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]), Workers{Vector{Float64}, Vector{Int64}}([2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714 … 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714], [13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984 … 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984, 13.963459838592984], [25.74799087814977, 25.74799087814977, 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0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [11.889212387273586, 18.40550270753724, 103.11727687096484, 24.92179302780091, 11.889212387273586, 24.92179302780091, 122.6661478317559, 11.889212387273586, 11.889212387273586, 24.92179302780091 … 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181, 785.546679139869, 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181, 23.94848771160181], [6.447669663541786, 9.98153599952956, 55.92179836737067, 13.51540233551734, 6.447669663541786, 13.51540233551734, 66.52339737533403, 6.447669663541786, 6.447669663541786, 13.51540233551734 … 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651, 426.0118607863149, 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651, 12.987566600381651]), Bank{Float64}(89460.0, 6476.292527744357, 0.0, 126431.00000000012, 0.028359903595743693, 3695.3696336675207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 33636.12938055406, 18241.296726948145), CentralBank{Float64}(0.0016459319014481277, 0.0089810924595537, 0.9259668580654086, -0.003424572940686137, 0.0049629315732038215, 0.30996974466133875, 1.328593153520194, 106179.90000000002), Government{Float64}(0.9905949533296431, 0.09373211872949586, 0.011235005057648862, 0.0, 14732.121510837034, 232610.9, 2.238468336136841, 0.5902859043576301, [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 0.0, 0.0), RestOfTheWorld{Float64}(0.962809216044625, 0.39260026877953946, 0.020320381298662014, 0.9662360466537488, 0.35492769963078624, 0.02122821278168188, 2.3548476e6, 0.0, 0.0019383188997990075, 0.38456173629534834, 0.0026219533879005877, 0.0025327891562467505, 0.9635784504324201, 0.5360029623199525, 0.006618207536795881, 0.0, 33097.63671130043, 34095.03119997918, [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 0.0, [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 0.0), Aggregates{Float64, Int64}([104531.39273728609, 105062.38754395355, 105399.12953350678, 106689.88106040593, 107938.33111423723, 108890.48532381697, 110110.17779727321, 110374.00540561741, 110808.89423399912, 111932.48072916963 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [-0.007497362866886709, -0.007895434153021436, -0.0019938777296781562, -0.0035311300388783107, 0.001212170001002849, -0.001672412335241874, 0.001839696090252002, 0.004290005139261838, 0.00600429551344886, 0.0036060572293247772 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 1.0, [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 … 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0], 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1), MutableNamedTuple(tau_VAT = 0.1528683933530887, tau_EXPORT = 0.0029486201783457183, tau_SIW = 0.17114894621657745, psi_H = 0.07125099957246343, tau_FIRM = 0.07701197259426128, H_inact = 4130, theta_DIV = 0.7858074440019603, I_s = [48, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 1, 1, 1 … 14, 10, 13, 41, 20, 16, 7, 7, 2, 19], psi = 0.9096681249468772, tau_INC = 0.21340742230566648, zeta_b = 0.5, tau_CF = 0.08761417854834112, H_act = 4743, zeta = 0.03, mu = 0.026713971694295565, tau_G = 0.009147800682711324, theta_UB = 0.3585824478060919, T_prime = 54, tau_SIF = 0.21215146534992413, T = 16, zeta_LTV = 0.6, I = 624, products = MutableNamedTuple(a_sg = [0.37790282216028437 0.0 … 0.0 0.0; 0.0006712800413285777 0.8149348034258406 … 2.4029219530949635e-5 0.00019143106686926454; … ; 0.00037430822580994426 0.000357977071568566 … 0.3197327950788158 0.0011366219595362582; 0.0 5.36965607352849e-5 … 0.0 0.05594572929254256], b_CF_g = [0.0033476048872100555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008050086095806136, 0.0, 0.003306696048303853, 0.0030629933432974495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0017883064872300512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002291709084994238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], b_CFH_g = [0.0006092803753845975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004372477702289994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06710603871527036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0041711096896454745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], c_E_g = [0.005090338238241512, 0.0005933402816643566, 1.793599921320476e-5, 0.007268146142708006, 0.05434404438533037, 0.02138421321578873, 0.023894091259534518, 0.028037089231640524, 0.005923381894006229, 0.011927802553688313 … 0.0014618202435669027, 0.0009447261124040238, 0.0001280209174610526, 0.0010477673386531637, 0.0, 0.0013030104043795392, 5.5260305268213854e-5, 0.0, 1.307076865739618e-5, 8.641230390167474e-6], b_HH_g = [0.011287997598927976, 0.0020040637862256817, 0.0003326837475323491, 0.00034402684015257527, 0.06305103828047173, 0.03068200872784047, 0.0003505790613555631, 0.0020473225369636873, 0.0, 0.0191077565617325 … 0.005591228759882936, 0.0004356874830029748, 0.014434120586233577, 0.03514505772295519, 0.024907176866291014, 0.013342154173060372, 0.009686226103767459, 0.011051272187723254, 0.0021206651420422927, 0.01721782824162338], c_G_g = [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.57086390274792e-6, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4536198623552867e-5, 0.0 … 0.008555738848801895, 0.3324338967920097, 0.22067672180252998, 0.2370889178393625, 0.0477595425645907, 0.012942508661614227, 0.004667927760053456, 0.021757222045203074, 0.0, 0.002000708524749294], c_I_g = [0.016810689305736877, 0.004087420487057966, 0.00036885674795364003, 0.05818437780960789, 0.04895082866561155, 0.04689140072807505, 0.010101572733480902, 0.016066325760592727, 0.00037371898454196314, 0.041008926225895866 … 0.0018123421762754539, 0.000401097116716159, 0.0003479865324437806, 0.0006664256271585853, 0.0028556289501379516, 0.001307065586721844, 6.418152296577174e-5, 0.0, 3.538212163497461e-5, 0.00020458795490837936]), J = 156, G = 62, H = 8873, L = 312, theta = 0.05, C = [4.3800671000101816e-5 0.00010629745355671226 9.959785873214212e-5; 0.00010629745355671226 0.0004129178961230129 0.0003596689472264872; 9.959785873214212e-5 0.0003596689472264872 0.0004506370179043619]))
Note that the it is very simple to inspect the model by typing
fieldnames(typeof(model))
(:w_act, :w_inact, :firms, :bank, :cb, :gov, :rotw, :agg, :prop)
and to inspect the specific attributes of one agent type by typing
fieldnames(typeof(model.bank))
(:E_k, :Pi_k, :Pi_e_k, :D_k, :r, :Y_h, :C_d_h, :I_d_h, :C_h, :I_h, :K_h, :D_h)
We can now define a data tracker, which will store the time series of the model.
data = Bit.init_data(model);
We can run now the model for a number of epochs and progressively update the data tracker.
for t in 1:T
Bit.step!(model; multi_threading = true)
Bit.update_data!(data, model)
end
Note that we can equivalently run the model for a number of epochs in the single command data = Bit.run!(model)
, but writing the loop explicitely is more instructive.
We can then plot any time series stored in the data tracker, for example
plot(data.real_gdp, title = "gdp", titlefont = 10)
Or we can plot multiple time series at once using the function plot_data
ps = Bit.plot_data(data, quantities = [:real_gdp, :real_household_consumption, :real_government_consumption, :real_capitalformation, :real_exports, :real_imports, :wages, :euribor, :gdp_deflator])
plot(ps..., layout = (3, 3))
To run multiple monte-carlo repetitions in parallel we can use
model = Bit.init_model(parameters, initial_conditions, T)
data_vector = Bit.ensemblerun(model, 4)
BeforeIT.DataVector(BeforeIT.Data[BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72421.99999999999, 72518.37322607067, 73248.80532158085, 74257.23494594253, 74550.99947515756, 75265.89947616015, 75932.30278903125, 77068.61618030616, 77897.78823998675, 78343.92199499959, 78510.6563905724, 78913.24034277292, 78563.93669613641, 79541.82495532342, 79840.98640074341, 80732.35685801809, 80855.53106846288], [72421.99999999999, 72361.89986014062, 72868.52374642088, 73551.7253647399, 73216.23271147128, 73646.98019190867, 73790.7836061332, 74629.79784684921, 75053.94926307301, 75126.42962712508, 75136.95373397069, 74972.9900920728, 74406.43746678684, 74934.86486291028, 74807.76837209801, 75869.90518677288, 75598.70776469474], [64900.920495538034, 64999.145814252566, 65667.50473938012, 66583.80872629743, 66846.08119347953, 67488.37703296018, 68082.43904598114, 69115.351957679, 69893.72917491876, 70286.56579034486, 70426.03811913979, 70771.31698587484, 70437.40133125921, 71311.34460831457, 71568.52591361666, 72395.18128033061, 72491.36713979262], [64900.920495538034, 64858.89673425145, 65326.58256284111, 65951.20349875883, 65649.26387261366, 66036.74706770481, 66162.30961647414, 66928.21281035911, 67342.09689163583, 67399.97952767373, 67399.74178155109, 67237.60454060318, 66709.94756472083, 67181.08334097061, 67056.80817125375, 68034.87168568163, 67778.34005226033], [40512.94792630534, 40470.43291423182, 40761.646761707874, 41221.89778826686, 41404.45773515371, 41803.02663762069, 42209.24418046473, 42714.808905031015, 42912.54740162784, 43240.90308250234, 43441.040467798746, 43833.4995353644, 43765.9998083593, 44315.67811914507, 44509.180859358, 44842.67220786321, 45089.04584080248], [40512.94792630534, 40383.10959771185, 40550.02688383262, 40830.25320486506, 40663.14917534355, 40903.87142344352, 41018.816618176286, 41363.10876779251, 41345.925580178446, 41465.05025173863, 41574.323765002766, 41644.830602456976, 41449.96120175626, 41748.97109830668, 41703.298547018836, 42141.830378066355, 42157.580994941716], [14866.888022051655, 14906.526745315676, 15163.942902577963, 15152.833335144547, 15291.721719204601, 15394.446420964947, 15674.53069747706, 15998.316681433762, 16276.37105459867, 16200.535100507086, 15889.86984811097, 16041.303862892517, 16110.722440087025, 16434.38264563948, 16635.695473717336, 16204.343177427136, 16252.498738268247], [14866.888022051655, 14874.362835531145, 15085.21713951174, 15008.86798135657, 15017.937570715274, 15063.322148821346, 15232.46181587295, 15492.053691894029, 15682.164473724042, 15535.198253512222, 15207.061951907142, 15240.338761310446, 15258.164396973829, 15482.524361844335, 15586.972428675055, 15228.367266020483, 15195.842341571655], [15944.236265986641, 15963.498305870015, 16071.780136566866, 16572.48786548644, 16345.630719851933, 16506.545490869295, 16646.333059014498, 16903.575938249487, 17246.54051374683, 17560.27190301346, 17921.36451392802, 17921.989282924835, 17996.656360095865, 17662.519347692407, 17126.81462520442, 18333.319753780117, 18408.072681730173], [15944.236265986641, 15929.05376166949, 15988.341207575082, 16415.034534750732, 16052.977304472599, 16151.500709666521, 16176.856429682777, 16368.6662312588, 16616.915652270483, 16839.092271116137, 17151.260710824074, 17027.118885278604, 17044.29719768073, 16639.528967323367, 16047.131168988462, 17229.117117493686, 17211.27161973676], [15944.236265986641, 15948.937588727158, 16083.913126230806, 16300.353239643853, 16386.67959746477, 16520.05451512729, 16664.310163442497, 16916.563706345944, 17077.225866339024, 17203.520923626216, 17274.655050103494, 17384.71847592249, 17317.580256312045, 17526.59134109459, 17590.00542453921, 17770.713083737115, 17832.660201568815], [15944.236265986641, 15914.524462280784, 16000.41120710013, 16145.48542917494, 16093.291239859172, 16164.719163825246, 16194.326525728686, 16381.243004471553, 16453.782227777214, 16496.992633200964, 16532.34117433502, 16516.674773299677, 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0.002123116762736273, 0.0015816281960920869, 0.0016509509635169919, 0.00242343562079055, 0.0026585129857846857], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 512.6344745547001 255.52718190025848 … 135.5563542199769 499.5942737104988; … ; 573.1631925276813 284.7983716518881 … 149.0776618123824 549.1852602859292; 562.3786520751992 278.6128207282961 … 146.90181388095033 542.2495314920059], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 512.3580957010006 255.38941841940078 … 135.48327113319584 499.32492527699344; … ; 551.8790544102883 274.22252177723885 … 143.54173489732747 528.7915310926545; 540.2904798520942 267.6699303018851 … 141.1320490562802 520.95195734815])])
Note that this will use the number of threads specified when activating the Julia environment. To discover the number of threads available, you can use the command
Threads.nthreads()
2
To activate Julia with a specific number of threads, say 8, you can use the command julia -t 8
in the terminal.
We can then plot the results of the monte-carlo repetitions using the function plot_data_vector
ps = Bit.plot_data_vector(data_vector)
plot(ps..., layout = (3, 3))